Attacking Iran

June 2025

As the first pictures of innocent victims of another avoidable, illegal (unless considered ‘acting in self-defence’) war started filling my feed – adding to the bloodied bodies slain in Gaza, Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon – I’ll try to channel my anger and sorrow into something insightful. 23 trips to Iran and almost 50 tours led  there has provided me with invaluable insights into the system, culture and psyche of the people of this most misunderstood land, now at the heart of this needless war. 

Firstly, regardless of whether they are Muslim, Jew, Christian, Atheist, Zoroastrian, layman or mullah, Iranians are proud of their land. From the Zagros Mountains in the west where Alexander’s army squeezed through a small passage to avoid the Persians though the ingenious desert architecture of Yazd to the Heart of the nation (Esfahan) and the Soul (Shiraz) to the Caspian Sea in the north and the Straits of Hormuz in the south, Iranians are proud of their poets, sufis, writers and ancient cultures. The ancient lands of Persia (There was no ‘Iranian Empire’ as Trump mentioned, as ‘Iran’ only came into use in 1946) have outlasted countless incursions by Romans, Greeks, Mongols, Arabs, Turks and more recently Russia and Britain. Iranians, aside from small communities in the south, are not Arabs, but an ethnic mix of Persians, Azeris, Kurds, Turks, Lors, Beloch – and even Jews. In times of threat to the lands Iranians come together. The Iraq – Iran war went a long way to galvanising the people when the fate of the recent revolution was still uncertain. 

To The Plot. It’s looking increasingly like Netanyahu is finally getting the dream ticket Trump’s predecessors resisted – a US military strike on Iran. his alarmist rhetoric about Iran’s ability to build a bomb started way back in 1992 (3 – 5 years) 1996 (by 1999), 2002 (Iraq and Iran are building nuclear weapons), 2009 (1 to 2 years), 2012 (next spring or summer) 2015 (vehemently opposing the JCPOA deal) and recently ‘weeks away’ – despite top US Intel and IAEA agreeing Iran was not producing a bomb (but was for the first time in breach of it’s non-proliferation obligations for the first time since 2005). years). Israel, of course, stays tight-lipped on its estimated illegal arsenal of 90 – 200 nuclear warheads, preferring to play the victim of imminent destruction. 

With thousands of lives at stake as well as the future of the region Trump can’t resist the ‘I may, I may not?’ showboating and seems to believe the lies of a man prepared to do anything to stay out of jail (more on that later). Meanwhile in Canada a photo op of western leaders at the G7 making a limp statement on restraint and tagging on a bit about Gaza has already slipped beneath the headlines – and been disregarded by the main cast. 

Trump publicly wrong-footed Netanyahu when he announced indirect US Iran talks a few months back. Despite the differences over time a deal could have been reached. You are never going to do a deal with the Iranians in 60 days. They are too smart for that. The JCPOA deal that Trump and Netanyahu hated took 2 years. Iran’s deep-rooted suspicion of the US dates to the 1953 coup (Operation Kermit). Distrust of the British goes back even further to the asset takeover of the Reuters deal and the pittance paid for the oil that fuelled 2 world wars. The brilliantly insightful ‘The Final Year’ documentary shows how hard John Kerry and his team worked on the JCPOA deal, which Iran was in compliance with even after Trump withdraw the US in 2018, effectively nullifying the agreement. 

Incidentally after the 2015 deal was signed by a reformist president, sanctions relief began and tourists started flocking to Iran. Rouhani won a 2nd term and even talk of reform, rather than regime change was muted. After the withdrawal from the deal, predictably the balance of power shifted back to the hardliners who believed once again that America couldn’t be trusted…

According to some experts the actual nuclear stockpile at Fardow is deeper than the operating reach of the so-called bunker-buster bombs, so although damage will be catastrophic, the knowledge and materials could still be there to return to nuclear enrichment at some point. The incentive to do so will be even greater, of course. The regime is used to playing the long game. Over 40 years of sanctions are testament to that. More than half of Iranians have never experienced life without sanctions that affect everything from consumer goods to medicines and aircraft parts. Iranians have survived – so far at least. 

Regime change could therefore top the covert wish list… The regime already has plans in place should Netanyahu or Trump takes out ‘the Ayatollah’ (worth the lazy commentators being more specific here as there are thousands of ayatollahs, fewer grand Ayatollahs but only one Supreme Leader). In the event of his (possibly imminent) death The Assembly of Experts simply choose a new leader. Khamenei’s divisive son (Mojtaba) currently tops the bill. 

Whilst generally unwilling conscripts will happily throw down their uniforms, the Revolutionary Guard pledge an oath to the Supreme Leader and supported by a thuggish civilian Basij force (responsible for recent brutal crackdowns on protests) will ensure any internal conflict results in bloodshed. I’m not sure Iranians have a taste for that. Freedom and human rights don’t come from Israeli bombs falling on cities where defenceless civilians live. Iran is not a failed state like Yemen, Syria and possibly Lebanon. There’s no abundance of well organised and armed factions operating in Iran. How can the weapon less ‘proud people of Iran’ be expected to ‘stand up for your freedon’? Bombing and starving people to death to force them to reject their leaders hasn’t worked in Gaza, despite the slaughter fast approaching 50 000. 

The answer, as previously noted, could be reform rather than regime change. Up to a point the Iranian parliamentary system is democratic with reformists, centralists and hardliners debating and voting. The parliament is made up of mainly secular laymen, rather than mullahs – and currently 16 women. If the religious tiers (Supreme Leader, Assembly of Experts, Guardian Council) were separated from the legislature and MP’s were not required to be approved by the Guardian Council reforms could gradually be introduced. 

Finally, the underlying story here may be more personal. Domestically Netanyahu is in deep trouble and the only thing keeping him out of jail is the country being on the war footing that prevents elections. The great unanswered question remains about the horrific attacks of Oct 6th that kickstarted this current crisis. If the intelligence is good enough to wipe out the Iranian air defence systems, track down and assassinate Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon and pinpoint where the Supreme Leader is hiding over 1000 miles away how did they fail to spot a terrorist group plotting mass chaos and butchery on their doorstep? Despite conscripts reporting heightened activity over the border in the preceding weeks, it took 6 hours for the elite Israeli military to respond. I hope one day that question is put to Netanyahu in front of his people. 

According to some Jesus was a Jewish man who sacrificed himself to save mankind.  Conversely is Netanyahu a Jewish man willing to sacrifice thousands of innocents just to just save himself?